August 29, 2008

Saudi Arab power demand may rise by more than 250% by 2032

According to the ministry of water & electricity, Saudi Arabian electricity consumption could rise to the equivalent of 140,000 MW in 2032 as compared with 35,000 MW in 2007.

Mr Ibrahim el Amin researcher at the King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals in Dhahran said that total Saudi Arabian power demand is projected to grow to more than 572,000 GWh in 2032 compared with 163,000 GWh in 2006.

Mr El Amin said that the long term demand study is based on the assumption that the population of Saudi Arabia will grow to 33 million to 39 million in 25 years as compared with 22 million now. He added that "The 2032 demand forecast is based on the assumption that the 5 economic cities being developed in the kingdom will need 10,662 MW in 2030. It estimates that at its lowest, demand would be about 108,000 MW in 2032."

He said that the forecast will be affected by the growing number of people arriving for the annual hajj and Ramadan, which takes place during the summer over much of the next decade. He added that "The hajj during the summer could add 1% to 3% to the forecast demand for the western region starting in 2016. There will also be a shift of demand from morning to the evening during Ramadan."

Mr El Amin further added that the long term electricity demand forecast was based on historic trends in the Saudi economy and in power consumption in the kingdom. No change was assumed in the kingdom's electricity tariff structure. Attention will now switch to the structure of supply side issues.