According to N Cotzias Shipping, the capsize market at the end of September consists of 825 ships of a total of 149 million tonnes carrying capacity. The average age of fleet is 10.6 years.
Based on its latest monthly report, N Cotzias said that just 16 capes of 2.8 million tonnes DWT have been scrapped. At the same time, the projected contracted and already under construction vessels that will enter the market until 2016 are 736 units of a total 144 million DWT. Out of these new buildings 429 units, or 80 million DWT are to enter the market by the end of 2010. Until today we only have 25 new buildings capes cancelled of which 9 were to be delivered in 2009 and 12 in 2010.This is a mere 5% only of the total of new ship orders.
Based on this assumption, Cotzias said that that "If we scrap only 2% of the total active fleet and if we cancel only 5% of the total orders, we are mathematically driven to expect that the Capsize market is head on to be over capacitated by 90% to 95% if all current trends prevail during remaining 2009 and 2010."
Capsize vessels were the most sought after asset in the shipping business during the previous years. Even traditional tanker owners couldn’t ignore the spectacular earnings these types of dry bulk vessels were yielding, opting to expand in the business by acquiring such ships in the secondhand market, most often paying hefty premiums.
(Sourced from Hellenic Shipping News)
