MEPS forecasts global steel production at 1200 million tonnes in 2009. This represents a 9.5% reduction on the outturn in the previous twelve month period. This result will be significantly above predictions by most pundits earlier in the year but in line with MEPS estimates in their annual report 'Global Iron & Steel Production to 2013'.
MEPS global steel production estimate details
| Region | 2008 | (f) 2009 |
| EU 27 | 198 | 135.9 |
| Other Europe | 31.8 | 29.3 |
| CIS | 114.1 | 94.3 |
| NAFTA | 124.5 | 81.3 |
| South America | 47.5 | 37.1 |
| Africa | 17.1 | 15.1 |
| Middle East | 16.6 | 17.5 |
| China | 500.5 | 560 |
| Japan | 118.7 | 86 |
| Other Asia | 148.8 | 138 |
| Oceania | 8.4 | 5.5 |
| World Total | 1326 | 1200 |
In million tonnes
(f) - Forecast
MEPS believe that steel manufacturing is expected to pick up quite significantly in the EU in the final trimester of this year as previously closed capacity comes back on stream. Inventories are low throughout the supply chain. Plant utilization is likely to rise from 57% in the third quarter to near 67% in the final three months. Despite this improvement, the total output in 2009 is forecast to decline by more than 30% on the year earlier figure.
Steelmaking in the non EU European nations is forecast to slip by approximately 8% in 2009 compared to the prior year. Local consumption has been weaker as a result of the economic downturn.
Steelmaking in the CIS region in 2009 is expected to be 20 million tonnes below the outturn in the previous twelve months. Construction demand has been particularly badly hit in the region as the global financial crisis took hold.
South American steel manufacturing will be down by approximately 20% this year as the global financial crisis takes its toll on both export and domestic sales. The African steel industry will escape the global economic downturn with only limited damage.
MEPS envisage that mill output this year is likely to decline by 2 million tonnes on the outturn a year earlier to a figure of just above 15 million tonnes. This represents a reduction of 11.6%.
Middle East steel production in 2009 is seen at 17.5 million tonnes. This represents a 5% increase on the outturn in the previous twelve months. The major steel producing companies have been virtually immune from the global financial crisis. New capacity has come on stream recently and further additions are in the pipeline.
A rise in steel production of 16 million tonnes is forecast for total Asia in 2009. Significant percentage gains in China and India will be partially offset by substantial declines in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
(Sourced from MEPS - World Steel Outlook)