South African coal exports in 2010 seen at 68 million tonnes
Thursday, 05 Nov 2009
Reuters reported that South Africa's thermal coal exports could rise to as high as 68 million tonnes in 2010 but are more likely to be 64 million to 65 million compared to 60 million in 2009.
Analysts and coal producer sources said that the restricted growth in South African coal exports has been one of the major supply bottlenecks this year and will continue to support prices 2010.
Mr Emmanuel Fages Carbon and Coal Analyst at Societe Generale said that "South African exports we think will reach around 68 million tonnes in 2010. It could be less than that, it all depends on Transnet but exports should be a bit better than 2009."
Coal market sources said that conflicting statements on the country's rail and port export capacity theoretical and actual have caused confusion.
Indian trader coal buyers said that they are concerned South Africa's exports will not rise enough 2010 to meet growing demand from the sub Continent.
One South African coal industry source said that "Transnet has been saying they have 80 million tonnes or so capacity, in theory but in practice it's very different and the figures fluctuate widely from week to week."
A producer source said that "There's no way they're going to move 68 or 69 million tonnes next year, although that's what they've said. They'll be lucky to do 64 million to 65 million which in itself is a big move up from 2009 which has been terrible."
