Annual Report on China's Steel Market in 2008 and the Outlook for 2009
Description
The 2008 Annual Report and Outlook for 2009 includes 14 separate reports on World Steel Market, China Steel Market, China HRC/CRC Market, China Wire Rod/Rebar Market, China Plate Market, China Stainless Steel Market, China Seamless Steel Pipe Market, China Strip Market, China Plated/coated Coil Market, China Section Market, and China Iron Ore Market, China Coke Market, China Scrap Market, China Ferroalloy Market.
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In 2008 China’s steel market experienced both sharp rises steep falls. In the first half of the year, the steel market rose continuously and broke historical records, due to the following reasons:
- Snow storms occurred in January
- A temporary shortage of coke, and massive hike in iron ore contracted prices
- Production control during the Beijing Olympics
- Reconstruction in earthquake-stricken regions
- Weakening US dollar and spreading inflation all over the world
- Steel price surge at world export market
- Relaxing money supply in China’s home market. In the second half of the year, due to slowing demand, tightening money supply, the credit crunch, a steep drop in international commodity prices and the strengthening US dollar, China’s steel market nose-dived.
In 2009 China’s steel market will encounter slowing demand both internally and externally, and will present a general trend of “slow demand and low supply”. If you want to read more about the steel market in China in 2009, please order this annual report.
Table of Contents
I Analysis on sharp rise and sharp fall in 2008 China steel market
1 Massive hike in China steel market in H1, 2008
- Snow storm affected steel supply
- Power coal and coke supply shortage during Spring Festival
- Massive rise in iron ore contracted price
- Influences of Beijing Olympics
- Prefab construction after Wenchuan earthquake drove up cold rolled products market
- Continuous depreciation of US dollar, crazy hike in commodity price and spreading inflation all over the world
- World steel price surged
- In spite of the tightened money policy the government implemented, inflation pressure still mounted, which cushioned the contradiction of the glut.
2 China steel price plummeted from the 3rd quarter.
- China economy grew slower in the 3rd quarter.
- Continuously tightening money policy exerted great pressure on capital flow.
- International commodity price dropped with the depreciation of USD
- Financial crisis blew heavily on market psychology.
3 China crude steel supply forecast
- According to current market situations and production cutbacks amid many steel mills, SteelHome revised its formal prediction of 520-530 million tons of 2008 crude steel production to about 510 million tons, up 4.2% or 20 million tons year on year.
- SteelHome assumes China steel products exports of 2008 at 57.50 million tons, down 8.2%
- or 5.15 million tons year on year
II China steel market anticipation for 2009
1 SteelHome assumes 540 million tons of China crude steel output in 2009.
- Market price will further curb the growth of steel production
- Coke supply continue to curb steel production
- The investment in China steel industry will maintain low.
- Flats production will stay high, and glut will not change.
- The utilization of steel capacity stay high.
2 Financial crisis hinder China steel exports
- World economy grow slower and steel demand dims
- China steel exports will be improved with the resolve of financial crisis.
3 Steel demand in China home markets will sustain stable rise, but the growth rate will drop from 2008.
- Advantages—Comprehensive national power is strengthened
- Disadvantages—Domestic demand takes up small proportion of GDP.
- Expectation for 2009 China Economic Growth
- Little headroom for FAI rise.
- Export rise slows down further.
- Consumption grow slower.
- Analysis on Downstream Sectors. In 2008, some steel-consuming industries are also on downward slope.
- Steel consumption rise forecast in China home market in 2009
4 China steel market forecast for 2009
List of Tables:
1 Average Price Change in China 28 Major Cities (in yuan per ton)
2 Backward Capacity Elimination in China Steel Industry
3 IMF Outlook on World Economic Growth
4 China Crude Steel Net Export Scenarios
5 Crude Steel Demand and GDP
6 Crude Steel Demand and FAI
7 Economic Gauges in 1997-2008
List of Graphs
1 SteelHome China Steel Price Index
2 China Steel Products, Coke Daily Output in 2007-2008
3 Euro VS USD in 2007-2008
4 SteelHome Global Steel Price Index (SH_CSPI)
5 China Economic Gauges in 2007-2008
6 China Crude Steel Monthly Supply during 2005-2008
7 China GDP Quarterly Growth in 2007-2008
8 RMB VS USD in 2007-2008
9 China Industrial Enterprises’ Profits in 2001-2008
10 China New Foreign Exchange Reserves VS Trade Surplus+ Foreign Investment in 2007-2008
11 China Money Supply in 2004-2008
12 SteelHome Assumes China Crude Steel Output of 2008
13 SteelHome Assumes China Steel, Billet/slab Import of 2008
14 SteelHome Assumes China Steel, Billet/slab Export of 2008
15 SteelHome Assumes China Crude Steel Impo& Expo of 2008
16 SteelHome Assumes China Crude Steel Supply of 2008
17 China Crude Steel, Pig Iron, and Steel Products Daily Production in 2007-2008
18 Large Steel mills Sales Income and Profit Ratio in 2006-2008
19 China HRB Monthly Average Price in 2006-2008
20 China Coke Supply VS Crude Steel Production in 2001-2008
21 China Coke Daily Production in 2007-2008
22 Investment Growth in China Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals in 2000-2008
23 China Longs, Flats Production in 2001-2007
24 China Flats Impo& expo Change in 2000-2008
25 SteelHome Prediction on World Crude Steel Output in 2008-2009
26 Crude Steel Apparent Consumption Outside of China in 2008-2009
27 JPY VS USD in 2006-2008 (in 10000 yen)
28 SKW VS USD in 2006-2008 (in 10000 won)
29 IDR VS USD in 2006-2008 (in 10000 rupee)
30 RUR VS USD in 2006-2008
31 BRL VS USD in 2006-2008
32 AUD VS USD in 2006-2008
33 EURO VS USD in 2006-2008
34 China Economic Growth in 2000-2008
35 China Social Fix-asset Investment in 2000-2008
36 China Consumption Growth in 2000-2008
37 China Machinery Industry Output Value in 2001-2008
38 China Machinery Industry Output in 2007-2008
39 Investment in China Property Industry in 2000-2008
40 Monthly Change in Property Industry Investment in 2007-2008
41 House Sale Area Growth in 2000-2008
42 China Automobile Output in 2000-2008
43 Monthly Change in China Automobile Output in 2007-2008
44 China Shipbuilding Completion in 2000-2008
45 China Washing Machine Output in 2000-2008
46 Monthly Changes in Washing Machine Output in 2007-2008
47 China Refrigerator Output in 2000-2008
48 Monthly Changes in Refrigerator Output in 2007-2008
49 China Air Conditioning Output in 2000-2008
50 Monthly Changes in Air Conditioning Output in 2007-2008
51 China Container Output in 2000-2008
52 Monthly Changes in Container Output in 2007-2008
Publish Date: Dec 2008
Price of soft copy (PDF): USD 2000
How to order:
The report costs USD 2000 each and is available in PDF format by email. For details, please get in touch with reports@steelguru.com
Disclaimer:
This report was made by Steelhome of China. SteelGuru doesn't guarantee or endorse the correctness or completeness of the contents. SteelGuru does not take any liability or complaints arising out of the same in any way, whatsoever.