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Deep Decarbonization of World’s Energy System Still 15 Years Away

Power News - Published on Mon, 28 Sep 2020

Image Source: Wind Energy DNV GL
Deep decarbonization of the world’s energy system is still 15 years away, with carbon emissions set to remain stubbornly high until the mid-2030s, according to a new forecast of the energy transition by DNV GL. Decarbonization is rising rapidly up the agenda of industry and governments, but not at the pace or depth required to meet the Paris Agreement, according to DNV GL’s forecast. The oil and gas industry is set to reduce its carbon emissions by a third (32%) by 2050, but world emissions will remain stubbornly high until the mid-2030s. The scaling of hydrogen and carbon capture and storage technology, incentivized by policy, will be a catalyst to begin deeply decarbonizing the oil and gas value chain after 2035. Partnerships among government, industry, and associations will be crucial in accelerating the timeline on decarbonization and reducing the risk of missing climate targets and ambitions.

Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use will fall just 15% to 2035, before then dropping 40% to 2050. The oil and gas industry will account for more than 80% of world energy-related carbon emissions in 2050.

DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook 2020 provides an independent forecast of developments in the world energy mix to 2050. In a dedicated oil and gas report, DNV GL presents the demand, supply, and investment forecast for hydrocarbons and decarbonized and green gases to 2050, and focuses on the outlook for decarbonizing the oil and gas industry.

The energy transition DNV GL forecasts is still nowhere near fast enough to deliver on the COP 21 Paris Agreement – which aims to keep global warming to ‘well below 2°C’ and to limit the increase to 1.5°C. DNV GL’s forecast shows that the world will exhaust the 1.5°C carbon budget under the Agreement in 2028 and the 2°C budget in 2051.

DNV GL forecasts that:
Fossil fuels will account for 54% of primary energy supply in 2050, compared to around 80% today
Much of this supply will come from natural gas, as it becomes the world’s largest energy source from the mid-2020s
Just 13% of natural gas will be decarbonized in 2050, with 12% of world energy emissions captured by CCS – most from natural gas
The transformation to decarbonizing gas will not scale for another 15 years, and only really gets going in the 2040s.

Source :

Posted By : Yogender Pancholi on Mon, 28 Sep 2020
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