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EUROFER Update on Real Steel Consumption in Q1 and Forecast

Steel News - Published on Tue, 23 Jul 2019

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Real steel consumption fell by 1.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019 and was 40 million tonnes. The marked slowdown in production activity of steel-using sectors, in combination with steel intensity becoming more negative, resulted in real steel consumption falling by 1.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019. Steel intensity, the ratio of steel consumption to steel weighted production in steel using industries, becoming more negative in an economic downturn is a rather common feature of final steel use in the downstream steel processing industries, particularly so in the engineering sectors. This has to do with investment becoming more geared towards automation, efficiency improvement, artificial intelligence and related services, which limits the material content in the product mix.

Real steel consumption forecast 2019-2020
Hesitating output growth in EU steel-using sectors over the 2019-2020 period together with an expected continuation of a negative steel intensity trend will result in the growth of real steel consumption falling by 0.4% in 2019. This will mark the first year of negative growth in EU real steel consumption since 2013.

A slight improvement in business conditions in the downstream steel-using sectors and better prospects for investment will lead to EU real steel consumption increasing by 1.1% in 2020; the impact of steel intensity is also expected to diminish somewhat.

This will result in real steel consumption reaching 162.2 million tonnes in 2019 and 164 million tonnes in 2020.

Forecast for real consumption - % change year-on-year
PeriodYear 2018Q1'19Q2'19Q3'19Q4'192019Q1'20Q2'20Q3'20Q4'202020
% change1.4-1.7-1.10.30.9-0.40.91.01.01.51.1
 

Source :

Posted By : Ratan Singh on Tue, 23 Jul 2019
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