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GMS Market Commentary on Shipbreaking in Week 29 - MID YEAR SLUMP!

Steel News - Published on Tue, 23 Jul 2019

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The mid-year slump witnessed across all recycling locations has shown no signs of abating, with another poor showing (especially from the subcontinent markets) as offers on units declined across the board on the back of weakening steel plate prices, with India taking the biggest hit once again. Bangladesh remains bloated with an array of expensive & large LDT vessels beached during the first half of the year and it is expected to take at least another month or so, before demand and pricing starts to return. Chattogram Buyers, represented by the powerful BSBA lobby, are also in the midst of challenging key terms of the recent budget, which has seen a 10% increase in VAT. However, the outcome of their efforts may only become clearer over the next few weeks. In the meantime, any open Buyers (assuming they can open L/Cs, which is reportedly becoming increasingly difficult) are attempting to secure market vessels on the cheap.

On the other side, India has suffered some catastrophic steel reversals over the past few weeks, with a decline in excess of USD 40/Ton witnessed thus far – leaving most Alang Buyers reticent to offer on new or existing tonnage, until some sort of stability is seen.

Pakistan, which had just started to creep up again after a woeful first half of the year, has also suffered setbacks with further dumping of Iranian billets that is undercutting the local market, and a currency that is still in a desperate state. As a result, it has been some time (nearly a year) since Gadani Buyers have secured a competitive / market vessel.

Finally, Turkey remains relatively unchanged, with local plate prices still suspended at region USD 290/MT and the Turkish Lira now firming, approaching levels from a couple of weeks ago.

Overall, despite some improvement in freight rates across the board, a moderate supply of potential tonnage (especially into the subcontinent markets) is being seen from Owners who remain keen to sell, whilst prices (especially for dry units) are at or below the USD 400/Ton mark.

For week 29 of 2019, GMS demo rankings / pricing for the week are as below.
Demo RankLocationSentimentDry Bulk USD/LDTContainers USD/LDTTankers USD/LDT
1BangladeshDecliningUSD 400/LTUSD 420/LTUSD 415/LT
2PakistanDecliningUSD 390/LTUSD 405/LTUSD 400/LT
3IndiaDecliningUSD 380/LTUSD 400/LTUSD 395/LT
4TurkeySteadyUSD 260/MTUSD 260/MTUSD 270/MT
 

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Posted By : Ratan Singh on Tue, 23 Jul 2019
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