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Shipping To Adopt Wait And See Mode After Tanker Attacks In The Gulf Of Oman - Gibson

Logistic News - Published on Tue, 18 Jun 2019

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In the aftermath of the shocking attack on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, shipping analysts and brokers are expecting the maritime industry to sit tight and wait for further developments and reports on the incident in the days to come, before deciding its future stance on the issue. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson said that “with US sanctions on Iranian crude exports now in full flow, Iran’s oil revenues are in quick decline, with sources quoting that they are already lower than under previous sanctions in 2012. As such, the policy to choke Iran of exporting crude seems to have had the desired effect. However, attempting to track any Iranian vessel movements has become very challenging, with most tankers having AIS transponders completely switched off”.

Gibson added that “statistics from Kpler show that Iran loaded for export over 0.8 million barrel per day in May, down from over 1.2 million barrel per day in April. Previously, most of the country’s crude was shipped to China, with the commodity tracking company reporting that over 900,000 barrel per day was discharged into China in April but just 330,000 barrel per day was unloaded in May as sanctions came into effect. However, these are just the statistics that we know of and can make a reasonable assumption due to vessel tracking. The latest AIS data shows that approximately 33 Iranian VLCCs have their AIS trackers completely switched off, a massive increase from just 12 units in April, just before the expiry of the US waiver program. The vessels with their transponders off could be just sitting idle or involved in storage or may well continue trading. On a few occasions in the past, we have observed NITC tankers offloading their cargoes via the STS transfers. However, as US ups the pressure to block Iranian crude trade, it is highly likely that Iranian tanker floating storage is on a rise. Others share a similar view. Argus Media has recently estimated that floating storage jumped from 7 million barrels to 20 million barrels last month. An increase in floating storage generally is a positive development for the tanker market. However, Iranian crude trade is a closed market, with the NITC tankers shipping only Iranian crude and absent from the international trade”.

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Posted By : Mohan Sharma on Tue, 18 Jun 2019
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