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Short Term Outlook For Electricity, Coal, Renewables And Emissions From EIA

Power News - Published on Fri, 14 Jun 2019

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EIA expects the share of US total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 35% in 2018 to 37% in 2019 and to 38% in 2020. EIA forecasts that the share of generation from coal will average 24% in 2019 and 23% in 2020, down from 27% in 2018. The forecast nuclear share of generation falls from 20% in 2019 to 19% in 2020, reflecting the retirement of some nuclear reactors. Hydropower averages a 7% share of total generation in the forecast for 2019 and 2020, similar to 2018. Wind, solar, and other non hydropower renewables together provided 10% of US generation in 2018. EIA expects they will provide 11% in 2019 and 13% in 2020. EIA forecasts that renewable fuels, including wind, solar, and hydropower, will collectively produce 18% of U.S. electricity in 2019 and almost 20% in 2020. EIA expects that annual generation from wind will surpass hydropower generation for the first time in 2019 to become the leading source of renewable electricity generation and maintain that position in 2020.

EIA forecasts that US coal consumption, which reached a 39-year low of 687 million metric tons in 2018, will fall to 602 MMst in 2019 and to 567 MMst in 2020. The falling consumption reflects lower demand for coal in the electric power sector.

After rising by 2.7% in 2018, EIA forecasts that US energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will decline by 2.0% in 2019 and by 0.9% in 2020. EIA expects US CO2 emissions will fall in 2019 and in 2020 because its forecast assumes that temperatures will return to near normal, and because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables increases while the forecast share generated from coal, which produces more CO2 emissions, decreases. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

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Posted By : Mohan Sharma on Fri, 14 Jun 2019
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