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World crude oil prices to rise average USD 65 per barrel in 2020- EIA

Gasoil News - Published on Fri, 18 Jan 2019

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EIA’s January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that world benchmark Brent crude oil will average USD 61 per barrel in 2019 and USD 65/b in 2020, an increase from the end of 2018, but overall it will remain lower than the 2018 average of USD 71/b US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices were USD 8/b lower than Brent prices in December 2018, and EIA expects this difference to narrow to USD 4/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and throughout 2020.

EIA estimates that global petroleum and other liquid fuels inventories grew by an average rate of 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018 and by an estimated 1.0 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2018. EIA expects growth in liquid fuels production in the United States and in other countries not part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will contribute to global oil inventory growth rates of 0.2 million b/d in 2019 and 0.4 million b/d in 2020.

Although EIA forecasts that oil prices will remain lower than during most of 2018, the forecast includes some increase in prices from December 2018 levels in early 2019 in order to keep up with demand growth and support the increased need for global oil inventories to maintain five-year average levels of demand cover. EIA expects crude oil prices to continue to increase in late 2019 and early 2020 because of an increase in refinery demand for light-sweet crude oil, which is the result of regulations from the International Maritime Organization that will limit the sulfur content in marine fuels used by ocean-going vessels.

EIA expects global oil production growth in 2019 to be led by countries that are not part of OPEC, particularly the United States. EIA expects non-OPEC producers will increase oil supply by 2.4 million b/d in 2019 which will offset forecast supply declines from OPEC members, resulting in an average of 1.4 million b/d in total global supply growth in 2019.

In 2020, EIA expects oil production to increase by 1.7 million b/d because of production growth in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Russia, while overall OPEC crude oil production is expected to remain flat. EIA forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.5 million b/d in 2019 and in 2020. In both 2019 and 2020, China is the leading contributor to global oil demand growth.

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Posted By : Joykumar Irom on Fri, 18 Jan 2019
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