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DNV GL Unveils Concept for Live Asset Risk Assessment Using Digital Twins

Gasoil News - Published on Tue, 10 Sep 2019

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DNV GL proposes the “Probabilistic Digital Twin” to close the gap between digital twins used increasingly by operators to manage the performance of their assets and risk analysis still largely conducted manually before assets enter service. A digital twin is a digital “mirror” of a physical asset, including models of its structure and dynamics which are updated through a combination of multiple data sources. They bring significant benefits for data management and decision making, providing a consistent, accurate single source of information. Risk models are rarely brought forward into operations, they typically exist separately within engineering, operations and health and safety disciplines – and are mostly used in desk studies, based on analyzing historical data and offering only a static picture of potential risks.

In reality, risk is dynamic, varying in time with operational conditions and the condition of the asset, but this is not captured by current risk models which are seldom updated and lack real-time and prediction capabilities.

Ms Liv A Hovem, CEO, DNV GL - Oil & Gas said that “A single, unscheduled downtime event can cost from USD 2 to USD 5 million per day – better and up-to-date risk information may significantly reduce unplanned or unnecessary downtime. Our proposed Probabilistic Digital Twin is designed to bring risk analysis into ‘live’ use. Their creation would add a layer of probabilistic risk modelling to existing digital twins, capturing uncertainty, the effect of new knowledge and actual conditions on operational performance and safety. By providing a more up-to-date and asset-specific risk picture, a PDT allows operators to adjust operations or take preventive actions to maintain an acceptable risk level at all times. This will enhance safety and reduce expensive downtime.”

The Probabilistic Digital Twin concept was unveiled at Offshore Europe 2019, by; Dr Frank Børre Pedersen, Programme director Oil & Gas at DNV GL’s Group Technology and Research unit; and senior research scientist Dr Andreas Hafver.

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Posted By : Rabi Wangkhem on Tue, 10 Sep 2019
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