Flat steel prices have shown resilience recently. The tone for improvement was set about a month back when the Chinese domestic steel prices made a turnaround after a 2 month.
Since mid October the price of HRC, CRC and HDG has improved by a whopping 9%, 4% and 2% respectively.
| Class | 15-Oct | 12-Nov | Change | % |
| CLPPI | 5619 | 5926 | 307 | 5.5% |
| CFPPI | 5576 | 5930 | 355 | 6.4% |
| CHISPI | 5594 | 5929 | 334 | 6.0% |
CLPPI - Chinese Long Product Price Index
CFPPI - Chinese Flat Product Price Index
CHISPI - Chinese Steel Price Index
| Category | 15-Oct | 12-Nov | Change | % |
| PI-WRC | 4886 | 5142 | 256 | 5.2% |
| PI-Rebar | 6506 | 6875 | 369 | 5.7% |
PI-Product Index
| Category | 15-Oct | 12-Nov | Change | % |
| PI-PLTS | 4899 | 5113 | 214 | 4.4% |
| PI-HR | 5506 | 6014 | 508 | 9.2% |
| PI-CR | 6346 | 6601 | 255 | 4.0% |
| PI-GP | 6116 | 6264 | 148 | 2.4% |
PI-Product Index
(Source:www.steelprices-china.com)
The peculiarity of this improvement needs no elucidation as it is as mysterious as the debacle prior to it. With the only common factor being absence of demand one is compelled to conclude that speculation is running amok causing magnified vacillation in the market prices
The swinging fortunes in domestic market had a pandemic effect on the export levels. The HRC prices which had touched a low of USD 460 per tonne to USD 470 per tonne FOB main Chinese port appreciated by USD 20 per tonne touching a level of USD 490 per tonne to USD 500 per tonne.
| Item | Grade | Size | Change |
| Billet | Q235 | 150x150 | 40 |
| Rebar | HRB400 | 12-25mm | 80 |
| Wire rod | Q195 | 5.5-12mm | 25 |
| HRC | SS 400 | 4.5-11mm | 20 |
| Plates | SS 400 | 12-40mm | 20 |
| CRC | SPCC | 1.0x1250 | 45 |
| HDG | SGCC | 1.0x1250 | 20 |
Change in USD
The steel majors in China viz., Bao Steel and Hebei were quick to capitalize by announcing withdrawal of discount in December prices .The flat product price have appreciated by an average CNY 300 per tonne during this period.
However during the last one week the prices of long and flat products has decelerated indicating seepage of deflation.
| Category | 12-Nov | 18-Nov | Change | % |
| PI-WRC | 5142 | 5095 | -47 | -0.9% |
| PI-Rebar | 6875 | 6821 | -54 | -0.8% |
PI-Product Index
| Category | 12-Nov | 18-Nov | Change | % |
| PI-PLTS | 5113 | 5171 | 58 | 1.1% |
| PI-HR | 6014 | 6063 | 49 | 0.8% |
| PI-CR | 6601 | 6693 | 92 | 1.4% |
| PI-GP | 6264 | 6307 | 43 | 0.7% |
PI-Product Index
In the other vital quarters of the global steel market the movement has been equally mystifying.
Ukraine & CIS
The mills in Ukraine and Russia had slumped to 40% to 50% capacity utilization during the first 2 quarters of 2009 quickly ramped up their production with encouraging price movements during the 2nd and 3rd Qtr touching 60% to 70%. The prices of HRC and billets improved by USD 200 per tonne and USD 70 per tonne respectively.
The spike however floundered ever since as the Chinese aggression compelled them to take rearguard measures. The underlining uniqueness has been that most of the mills have been loaded all through albeit at truncated capacity. The strategy being that once the mills booked they announce price hike for the ensuing month. However with release of low priced material amassed by traders in the meanwhile pressures mills to retract. Lack of demand has made mills fickle and susceptible to trader’s tactics.
It is reported that most of the mills in Ukraine and Russia are loaded till January. Off late flurry of demand in Europe owing to stock depletion and pre Christmas and New Year rush to replenish stocks has sparked price hike to the tune of USD 20 per tonne touching USD 555 per tonne , CNF FO main European port or USD 500 - 510 per tonne FOB, Black Sea port . As the holidays closes on the bubble is likely to burst. Like wise HDG offers have also improved by USD 20-30 per tonne from Chinese mills as well.
India
Most of the mills in India have improved HDG and PPGI offers by USD 30 per tonne to USD 40 per tonne for Europe touching levels of USD 800 per tonne and USD 930 per tonne respectively to Europe. Middle East however remains quiet suppliers don’t seem interested as Europe drives the sentiments.
The burgeoning stocks in China which is on the rampage with month-on-month growth in production touching 52 million tonnes in October and likely to end in annualized production of 600 plus million tonne is certainly going to play havoc with market sentiments in the coming months. On the other hand production-consumption centers in CIS and Europe will remain dormant during the holidays and dreary winter. In this backdrop the horizon seems hazy and murky despite recent flurry.
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