Indian Steel: Opportunities and Strategic Options
Read the views and analysis of the best known experts on the most significant issues related to Indian steel.
• What is happening to Indian steel? All is well? Is the policy regime headed to the Control Raj? What are the compulsions of the government and the real story in it? Are Indian steel industry’s strategic interests lost in the actions of the government sunk in the political exigency of time?
• Why is India’s steel consumption growth slowing down? Is it the beginning of a trend or only a short deviation? What does one expect in the days ahead? Are supply side constraints holding back steel consumption growth? Or, are high prices pulling down steel demand? Are the general recessionary conditions in the economy responsible for a slowdown in demand? Is it the political uncertainty pulling back investment? What is happening to the steel user industries? What are the new forecasts of steel demand, by products and market segments?
• The stagnant steel capacity in India : the latest information on India’s steel projects. Who are non-starters? Who all are gaining pace? How are mining leases,land acquisition and other issues progressing for the steel projects? What if thereare political changes at the top in the forthcoming elections? How sensitive are the fate of the steel projects to the political dynamics?
• Will the Indian steel industry find it hard to mobilize the financial resources it needs to add capacity, especially for greenfield projects? How are the domestic banks and institutions positioned in their support? In the midst of a global resource crunch, will foreign investors find Indian steel projects attractive? Even if funds are available, what will be the impact of rising interest rates, inflation and time overrun on the steel projects? Will they remain viable even after that? What will be the impact of those on the Indian steel company’s bid to acquire steel plants, mines and other assets?
• How is the supply and demand scenario emerging for the next five to six years for various steel products? Are the steel makers right in planning their product mix? Will the country’s industry be pushed to the export market or that shortages will make them increasingly domestically focused, rise in imports and also varieties of stringent government interventions?
• What is happening to alloy and stainless steel? Where are the new markets and who are the players? Where are the new investments coming? Are they all on the right track? Where are the best economics there?
• Opportunities to trade in steel : China on the East and the Middle East on the West. Will India become a net exporter or importer with these two regions? What are the opportunities for Indian steel industry in the Middle East?
• How is the metallics situation? Will the iron ore states see massive growth in coal based DRI production? What is the steel scrap outlook?
• Iron ore : will the debate over sufficiency ever end? The two sides in the debate :where are their real interests? What are the new iron ore discoveries? Who all have got the prospecting and mining leases? How good are these resources?
• Will Indian iron ore see restrictions to export? What are the strategic options for iron ore companies in an increasingly regulated regime?
• Will Indian steel dream get cut short due to shortages and high prices of coking coal? Will the industry go for a technology shift with new coking coal economics?
Statistical Coverage
• India’s macro economy : trends in GDP, industrial production, construction andsteel relevant industries.
• Steel industry capacity : crude and finished steel : growth trends by major producers and segments. Also, mill capacities with major plants.
• Production trend : crude and finished steel, for major producers and segments.
• Consumption trend : by products and across regions.
• Detailed status of the steel market in India, by products and with specific details such as size and shapes for HR coils, CR coils and sheets, galvanised sheets,rebars, sections, wire rods and plates.
• New investments in steel: latest status of the projects, description by product mix, capacity, location, etc.. in a separate excel sheet.
• Expected production of steel year wise till 2015, by major products in different scenarios.
• Latest forecasts of annual steel demand by products till 2020.
• Forecast of demand for steel by end user industries till 2011.
• The alloy and stainless steel market: trends in investment, production, consumption.
• Forecast of alloy and stainless steel demand till 2020.
• Steel price trends and short term forecasts for all major products.
• Costs of production of steel in India: past trends and forecasts.
• Iron ore: resources, reserves, production, consumption, exports, prices, etc.., by grades.
• Details of captive mines with Indian steel producers and new prospecting and mining leases granted to them.
• Production, consumption, E- auction prices, imports of coal.
• Prices of ferro-alloys – production and consumption trends.
• Production, consumption, export, import and prices of pig iron and sponge iron in the domestic market.
• Import of steel melting scrap, estimated domestic generation, local and import prices.
“This new study comes out with findings completely different from the popular growth stories told about the short and mid term potential of steel demand growth in the country.
The report, yet to be officially released, blames much of it t on the uncertainty in the policy regime, global economic slowdown and deep structural weakness in the economy that has begun to show itself in the recent past.
The report says India may see a drop in steel demand in the coming two years. The annual growth rates in finished steel consumption are likely to be 5.5% in 2008-09 and about 4.5% in 2009-10. This is in sharp contrast to the forecasts made earlier when growth rates were expected in the range of 9-12% for these two years. Demand growth for stainless and alloy steel also will remain far below potential. The study has predicted significant change in the structure of the market in the next 10 years from the earlier forecast scenarios with changes in the growth trends for specific products.
The report further goes on to project a rather pessimistic scenario in respect of production growth as new projects start ups have been significantly delayed. While the brownfield expansion projects of the private companies and RINL are on course, SAIL, the study finds, is way behind the schedule.The new supply and demand conditions in the market will leave their expected impact on the external trade. Imports will remain far above exports this year, but, the situation will start changing from 2009-10. Exports of steel, especially flat products, will sharply rise to turn the country into a net exporter of steel once again.
The study forecasts prices of steel to come under pressure with weakening of demand and not so much due to government actions. With rising costs of coking coal, the integrated mills will see their margins eroding. Higher costs of other inputs such as iron ore, noncoking coal and ferro-alloys will hit the secondary sector hard.
The steel companies will also find it hard to mobilize resources for their new projects, the report concludes.”
A pre-publication preview of the report at www.steelguru.com
190 pages with more than 70 charts and tables with in depth analytical content.
Scheduled for release on September 15th 2008
Price on release : US$5000.
Advance Booking Price : US$ 4000 ( valid till 31st July 2008)
For further details contact reports@steelguru.com